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Objective@#Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to predict the incidence of tuberculosis in China from 2018 to 2019, providing references for the prevention and control of pulmonary tuberculosis.@*Methods@#The monthly incidence data of tuberculosis in China were collected from January 2005 to December 2017. R 3.4.4 software was used to establish the ARIMA model, based on the monthly incidence data of tuberculosis from January 2005 to June 2017. Both predicted and actual data from July to December 2017 were compared to verify the effectiveness of this model, and the number of tuberculosis cases in 2018-2019 also predicted.@*Results@#From 2005 to 2017, a total of 13 022 675 cases of tuberculosis were reported, the number of pulmonary tuberculosis patients in 2017 was 33.68% lower than that in 2005, and the seasonal character was obvious, with the incidence in winter and spring was higher than that in other seasons. According to the incidence data from 2005 to 2017, we established the model of ARIMA (0,1,2)(0,1,0)12. The relative error between the predicted and actual values of July to December 2017 fitted by the model ranged from 1.67% to 6.80%, and the predicted number of patients in 2018 and 2019 were 789 509 and 760 165 respectively.@*Conclusion@#The ARIMA (0, 1, 2)(0, 1, 0)12 model well predicted the incidence of tuberculosis, thus can be used for short-term prediction and dynamic analysis of tuberculosis in China, with good application value.
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Objective To systematically review the correlation between birth weight and blood pressure of child and adolescent, and provide a theoretical basis for the etiologic research and the prevention for hypertension of child and adolescent.Methods Comprehensive electronic searches of Chinese Web of Knowledge (CNKI), Wang Fang, Wei Pu (VIP), PubMed and Web of Science were conducted to identify any study reporting the correlation of birth weight and blood pressure of child and adolescent.SPSS 13.0 software was used to convert the data.Meta-analysis was conducted with STATA 12.0 software.Results Thirty four researches were included in this study.The results of meta-analysis showed that low birth weight children or adolescents had a higher risk of hypertension with a significant difference compared to the group which birth weight greater than 2 500 g (OR =1.20;95％ CI:1.09-1.33;P ＜ 0.01).Its systolic blood pressure and diastolic blood pressure was on the high side.In addition, it showed that no significant differences were found between hypertension and high birth weight (OR =1.03;95％ CI:0.89-1.18;P ＞ 0.05).But its systolic blood pressure and diastolic blood pressure was on the high side too.Conclusions Abnormal birth weight is probably a risk factor of child and adolescent high blood pressure.Low birth weight has greater influence on blood pressure of children and adolescents.It can be detected early to prevent abnormal birth weight and child hypertension.
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Objective To quantitatively analyze the effects of high background radiation area (HBRA) on the frequencies of translocation and unstable chromosome aberrations in human peripheral blood lymphocytes.Methods Based on the data from 9 published articles retrieved from 7 electronic databases,the Meta-analysis was performed to evaluate the effects of high natural background radiation (HNBR) on the frequencies of chromosome aberrations in the peripheral blood lymphocytes in 17 777 persons from HBRA and 10 386 from the control area (CA).Cochrane's Q and I2 statistics were used to evaluate heterogeneity among studies and pooling odds ratio (OR) with 95％ confidence intervals (95％ CI) were calculated using random-effect models.Publication bias was also calculated by funnel plot,Egger linear regression test and Begg rank correlation test.Results The pooling OR of translocation [OR(95％ CI) =1.57(1.10-2.24)] and unstable chromosome aberration [OR(95％ CI) =2.04(1.32-3.14)] of long-term exposed inhabitants living in HBRA were higher than control.The subgroup analysis showed that,fortranslocation,the OR (95％ CI) were 1.24 (1.09-1.42,I2 =0.00) for male,1.37 (1.17-1.60,I2 =0.00) for female,1.17 (1.05-1.30,I2 =69.50％) for adults,and 1.38 (1.25-1.51,I2 =0.00) for Chinese.For unstable chromosome aberration,the OR (95％ CI) were 3.78 (2.40-5.97,I2 =0.00) for female,2.60 (2.25-3.00,I2 =69.60％) for adults,1.03(0.85-1.24,I2 =0.00) for children,3.19 (2.46-4.13,I2 =21.60％) for Iranian,and 1.64 (1.33-2.02,I2 =0.00) for Chinese.HBRA,age and sex differences were the reasons of above heterogeneity.Conclusions To the inhabitants living in HBRA,the frequencies of translocation and unstable chromosome aberration of peripheral blood lymphocytes are higher than those in control area.More comprehensive analysis should be performed to assess the health risk in HBRA inhabitants,which may arise new stragety in radiation protection.
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Objective To quantitatively investigate the effect of low-dose ionizing radiation on the frequencies of chromosome aberrations and micronucleus-containing cells of radiation workers.Methods Nine electronic databases were systematically searched on the basis of the published studies evaluating the effects of low-dose ionizing radiation on the frequencies of chromosome aberrations and micronucleuscontaining cells.Of the 195 studies searched,21 studies were identified with a total of 1 970 626 cells under studying.Cochrane' s Q and I2 statistics were used to evaluate heterogeneity among studies and pooling odds ratio (OR) with 95％ confidence intervals (CI) were calculated using random-effect models or fixed-effect models,and publication bias were also calculated.Meta-analysis was performed using Stata 12.0.Results The pooling OR of chromosome-type aberrations [OR =3.03 (2.59,3.56)],dicentric plus centric rings [OR =4.12 (2.99,5.67)],translocations [OR =2.73 (1.67,4.46)],micronucleuscontaining cells [OR =1.70 (1.40-2.06)] were higher for radiation workers when compared with control group.Conclusions The frequencies of chromosome aberrations and micronucleus cell of peripheral lymphocytes are significantly high in radiation workers who were occupationally exposed to low-dose ionizing radiation.It should be noted that the radiation protection of radiological workers be enhanced.
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Objective To comprehensively analyze the effect of low-dose radiation on the lens of the eye of radiation workers.Methods The papers dealing with the relationship between occupational radiation exposure and the lens of the eye were collected by retrieving documents of the domestic and foreign medical information databases with references to other papers.There were 28 papers finalized with 17 608 workers included in the Meta-analysis.Stata12.0 was used for Meta-analysis,Q-test and I2 statistic for heterogeneity test,and funnel regression method,Begg's rank method and Egger's regression method for publication bias.Results The pooling odds ratio (OR) opacity in radiation workers were 2.51 (2.01,3.13),4.03 (2.77,5.85),respectively.Conclusions Low-dose radiation may lead to negative impact on ocular lens under the current occupational protection conditions.The proportion of posterior subcapsular opacity in radiation-related cataract is higher than that in age-related cataract.It is important to strengthen radiation protection of ocular lens.
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<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>To discover the characteristic changes of metabolic profiles in C57 mice with cyclophosphamide induced blood deficiency and the effect of Siwutang.</p><p><b>METHOD</b>An integrated metabonomic study using high-resolution 1H nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy has been applied to investigate the metabolic profiles of serum, aqueous and lipidic extracts of thoracic gland, spleen, bone marrow obtained from control, model group (intraperitoneal injection of cyclophosphamide at a dose of 250 mg x kg(-1)) and Siwutang treated model group. The NMR spectra were integrated in segments of 0.04 ppm and then analyzed by principal component analysis (PCA) using SIMCA-P software to visualize the similarities and differences in metabolic profiles between these groups.</p><p><b>RESULT</b>PCA result showed conspicuous difference in the metabolic profiles between groups. Compared with the control group, the model group contained lower concentration of lactate, 3-hydroxybutyrate, choline, glucose, and higher concentration of VLDL/LDL, leucine/isoleucine in serum. Lower concentration of taurine choline, Fbeta:RCH2CH2CO, Epi-coprostanol and lactate were found in both in thoracic gland extracts and spleen extracts. And in spleen extracts, we also found the lower concentration of 3-HB. In the extracts of bone marrow, the lower concentration of lactate, choline, glucosee were observed. When they were dosed with Siwutang 10 g x kg(-1) x d(-1) for 7 days, the effects above-mentioned were reversed.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>The injury established by injecting CTX is a kind of proper model to develop further metabonomics researches. The damage of mitochondria, disorder of energy metabolism and osmoregulation are observed in cyclophosphamide caused blood deficiency model by NMR-based-metabonomics method, and the Siwutang can improve these effects.</p>
Subject(s)
Animals , Mice , Anemia , Drug Therapy , Metabolism , Cyclophosphamide , Toxicity , Drugs, Chinese Herbal , Therapeutic Uses , Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopy , Methods , Medicine, Chinese Traditional , Metabolomics , Mice, Inbred C57BL , Paeonia , Principal Component AnalysisABSTRACT
In the present study, an ultra performance liquid chromatography coupled with time-of-flight mass spectrometry (UPLC/Q-TOFMS) based on chemical profiling approach to evaluate chemical constitution between mixed decoction and co-decoction of monkshood-pinellia combination of the eighteen incompatible medications (Shi Ba Fan) was proposed. Two different kinds of decoctions, namely monkshood-pinellia co-decoction: water extract of the two herbs together, and monkshood-pinellia mixed decoction: water extract of each individual herbs mixed together, were prepared. Batches of these two kinds of decoction samples were subjected to UPLC/Q-TOFMS analysis, the datasets were processed with MassLynx 4.1 to holistically compare the difference between these two kinds of decoction samples. The most changed components during decocting were analyzed. Using the proposed approach, global chemical difference was found between co-decoction and mixed decoction, mesaconitine, aconitine and hypaconitine were identified as the most changed components (changed most significantly) during decocting. Result shows significant difference between two kinds of decoction samples, and the significant differences are probably related to the incompatibility of monkshood and pinellia.